To decide the strength of our economic recovery since the Great Recession, we can use seven numbers or just one that might be most important.…
Business Cycles
The Accuracy of the Mashed Potato Index
Mashed Potatoes could be a good way to decide the direction of consumer spending. Where are we going? To consumer spending indices. The Mashed Potato Index (MPI) A pound container of mashed potatoes w…
Blaming the Baby Boomers
Wondering why the economy is sluggish, you can blame the baby boomers for less employment growth, smaller families and longer lives.…
When Not to Build a Super Tall Skyscraper
From the Chrysler Building in NYC to Taipei 101 in Taiwan, the timing of super tall skyscraper construction provides clues about business cycles.…
Unusual Economic Indicators
If you see women in long skirts at “sit-down” restaurants, then the economy is probably expanding. Since 1926 when the hemline index was first expressed, economists have assumed that hemli…
More On Unemployment
These are great graphs! In just a minute or 2, through a series from The Washington Post, you can understand our employment problems. Our starting point is potential output during the past decade. We …
It's Official
We now know when the recession officially ended. But I still wonder whether we are moving along a “V”, a “U”, a “W” or an “L”. According to the National…
Big and Little Worries
1. Sovereign debt: Contemplating big worries, I could place sovereign debt at the top of the the list. Should we currently be concerned about Greece, Spain and other EU nations with excessive ob…