Using Presidential Futures Markets to Forecast Election Winners

Through the wisdom of prediction markets, the prices of the shares of presidential futures forecast who has the best chance of winning.

Weekly Roundup: From Garbage Questions to Credit Card Costs

Our economic news summary includes expectations bias and female scholars, the environmental debate about garbage and hidden credit card externalities.

Why Shades of Gray Might Lead to Better Research

Through his Reproducibility Project, Brian Nosek shows that scientific accuracy can be assessed through replication of results and prediction markets.

Using Prediction Markets to Catch Match-Fixing at Wimbledon

When supply and demand in tennis match prediction markets created illogical prices, researchers said that 3 matches at Wimbledon might have been fixed.

Presidential Futures

The prices of buy and sell contracts for the Republican presidential candidates in Iowa provide a good history of the beginning of the primary race. Romney contracts (max of $1) on the first and last day of each month since…

Presidential Wagers

 Looking at the University of Iowa GOP Iowa Caucus Market, you could create these headlines: “Gingrich gains.” “Cain crashes.” Perry plummets. Romney remains. With quotes indicated every 15 minutes, the University of Iowa prediction market for the Republican presidential nomination…

Oscar Markets

Can a crowd be smarter than an individual? In The Wisdom of Crowds, business columnist James Surowiecki, says “Sometimes, yes.” Starting with a crowd betting on the weight of an ox and ending with the crowd and democracy, Surowiecki looks…