When the Economy Is Like the Weather

Economic forecasting can frequently be inaccurate because of changing numbers and human bias or, as Yogi Berra reputedly said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

A New Way To Take Our Economic Pulse

Economists become somewhat similar to weather men and women when their GDP monitor is a nowcast that forecasts the present.

The Accuracy of the Mashed Potato Index

Mashed Potatoes could be a good way to decide the direction of consumer spending. Where are we going? To consumer spending indices. The Mashed Potato Index (MPI) A pound container of mashed potatoes will cost you $4 at Stew Leonard’s, a NY…

Dude, Where’s My Tax Revenue?

Unpredictable human behavior for Colorado marijuana sales is but one example of why economic forecasting for tax revenue and GDP is inaccurate.

Economic Uncertainty

Uncertainty might impede economic growth. The research of several economists indicates that policy uncertainty foreshadows and might even cause slower economic activity. To prove their hypothesis, they created an Index of Economic Policy Uncertainty with 3 data components: 1) The…