Defrosting the Doughnut Hole

A global phenomenon will open up new areas for oil exploration, enable ships to take shortcuts, and provide easier access to world markets for iron ore and other minerals.

The phenomenon? Global warming.

Because of global warming, the polar ice sheet is shrinking. With this summer having been one of the warmest on record, ships are traveling from Murmansk, near Finland, across the top of the world to Asia in record time. Scientists predict that by 2050, this Northeast Passage will be ice-free during the summer.

A navigable Northeast Passage means shorter travel time from Europe to Asia and competition for the Suez Canal. It means previously inaccessible resources can now be drilled and mined and transported.

That takes us to the Arctic Ocean doughnut hole. A huge fishing area that is beyond any nation’s jurisdiction, as it melts, the doughnut hole will attract fishing vessels from around the world.

Our bottom line? Global warming could have environmental positives that would include huge energy and mineral discoveries, and emissions reduction and cheaper transport from shorter routes.

The Economic Lesson

Perhaps one of the first environmentalists, Reverend Thomas Malthus told us in 1798 that population grows geometrically while resource production expands arithmetically. Consequently, resource prices will rise and supply will become increasingly inadequate.

You can see though, that environmental predictions are tough to make. This NY Times Magazine article describes the bet between the boomsters who said we would not exhaust our resource supply and the doomsters who said we would.

An Economic Question: Whenever a transaction between two parties affects a third, uninvolved individual or group, economists see an externality. How does global warming relate to positive and negative externalities?