Banana Worries

If a fungal disease eradicates our banana population, many of us would miss it. But, not everyone.

According to a YouGov survey, whereas bananas are #2 in popularity for all adults, Gen X ranks them at #7. All agree though that strawberries are at the top and dried prunes are close to #44:

During the past 150 years, banana consumption has changed.

Banana Consumption

The Past

Our story starts in Jersey City where the first U.S. bananas arrived in 1870. Called the Gros Michel (“Big Mike”), these banana ancestors didn’t ripen too quickly nor bruise too easily and were reputedly super tasty.

We could have found the Gros Michel at Wall Street’s banana docks:

You and I, though, were not destined to enjoy them. By 1960 very little remained of the Gros Michel because of a fungal disease that had been spreading for 40 years. The one replacement possibility was a second rate banana called the Cavendish. Its taste was somewhat bland, and it needed pesticides and ethylene ripening. But its long storage life made it perfect for shipping.

And the Cavendish survived the fungus.

Now it might not.

The Future

Because Cavendish bananas are genetically identical, anything that kills one can kill them all. During the 1990s, a strain of the fungus that eliminated the Gros Michel began its journey around the world. Called Tropical Race 4, it hopscotched across Asia, Australia, Africa, and the Middle East. With some success, growers contained it until Colombia declared a national (banana) emergency in 2019. By 2021 cases were detected in Peru and 2023, Venezuela.

As you might expect, scientists are racing to save the Cavendish. They are continuing to limit TR4’s spread and hope gene editing is a solution. Recently approved in New Zealand, a genetically modified disease resistant version (QCAV-4) of the Cavendish could begin its commercial life. Or maybe, we will just get a new kind of banana.

You can see that Ecuador, the world’s largest banana exporter, is located near Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela, the three South American countries where Trace 4 has been sited:

Our Bottom Line: Opportunity Cost

Banana production remains gargantuan:

With the U.S. at #1, Germany, China, Japan, and the Netherlands are also top importers:

You and I eat an average of 90 bananas a year.

So, with a popular fruit in jeopardy, we can ask why not implement replacement plans? An economist would say that it is all about opportunity cost. At this moment, switching so massive a Cavendish supply chain creates too great a sacrifice.

My sources and more: The U.S. International Trade Commission had the update on the Cavendish while YouGov had the popularity.

Also please note that today I’ve included parts of previous econlife posts.