A New Egg Price Mystery

Arizona egg farmer Glenn Hickman again just got hit by Avian flu. With 6 million infected birds on his four farms, he had to depopulate. We are told that the 340,000 chickens that remain on one farm reflect a “barely populated” flock. During 2022, the round of bird flu that had been regarded as a “seasonal challenge” could instead be continuing.

As a result, we can ask again about the future of our egg prices.

Egg Prices

On June 9, 2025, wholesale egg prices were at $2.65 a dozen. Looking back to June 2020, their price was 78 cents. Even with the recent price plunge, we are still in record high territory when compared to the past:

Our Bottom Line: Demand and Supply

As economists, we can explain egg prices through demand and supply. It started with the law of demand. When prices rose, we bought less. Asking why prices rose, we can say that avian flu shifted our supply curve.

As a result, when the new supply curve decreased by shifting up and to the left, price increased:

Then though, the supply side repopulated its farms and also imported eggs from Turkey, Mexico, and Brazil. As a result, when the new supply curve (blue) shifts down and to the right, price falls. In addition, assuming that we eat fewer hot breakfasts in warmer weather, our demand for eggs drops further (blue).

Both shifts push price and quantity down to our big E:

We do though have a third scenario. The Arizona farmer with whom we began wants to vaccinate his chickens. Telling us the vaccine is available and approved, he said meat chicken farmers block the initiative. Exporting chickens to European countries that prohibit vaccinated livestock, those farmers refuse to vaccinate their flocks against bird flu. Interviewed during a Bloomberg podcast, Mr. Hickman says it will take a mandate from President Trump to get his chickens vaccinated.

So, will prices remain depressed?

Perhaps giving us an answer, the USDA said that reports from Arizona were “…enough to give dairycase managers sleepless nights.”

But still…

…we have an “on the one hand but then on the other” situation–the reason President Harry Truman (1945-1953) said he was searching for a one-handed economist.

My sources and more: Thanks to Bloomberg’s Odd Lots for inspiring today’s post. From there, the USDA had the up-to-date facts in its “Egg Markets Overview” June report.