Who Gets Hit By a 25% Tariff?

Contemplating the impact of 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, the Super Bowl says it all.

According to ESPN, every 7 minutes, loaded with a whopping 132,000 avocados, a truck left Michoacán preceding the 2023 Super Bowl. Meanwhile, during the past month, 110,000 tons have already shipped. They could add up to 54 million avocados–mostly destined for Super Bowl LIX guacamole dishes.

So yes, we all depend on each other. But there is much more.

U.S. Canada Trade

With Mexico in the #2 spot, Canada is the #1 trading partner for a majority of U.S. states.

Imports

This November 2024 imports map of our trading partners best illustrates where Trump tariffs will hit the hardest:

Montana’s total state imports from Canada are at a gargantuan 86% because of the Canadian crude oil that it refines. However, at 65% to 75% of all of North Dakota’s, Maine’s, Wyoming’s, and Vermont’s imports, Canada is also a key partner.

By value, Canada is #3 for its share of U.S. imports:

• Mexico: 15.2%
• China: 14.1%
• Canada: 13.6%

Exports

Through a different visual, Business Insider clearly displayed Canada’s dominance for exports to more than 30 states:

Sticking with Montana, we would see that its coal and copper compounds go to Canada. But, at 82%, with global exports that include wheat, oil, and farm machinery, North Dakota is more dependent.

Then again moving to the big picture, this time, Canada leads the share of total U.S. exports by value:

• Canada: 17.5%
• Mexico: 16.0%
• China: 7.3%

Crude Oil

For yet another perspective, the following map from the Congressional Research Service illustrates the huge extent to which Canadian crude is a part of the U.S. economy:

Our Bottom Line: Tariffs

Sadly, a recent Statista poll indicates vast ignorance about tariffs:

If you have any questions, please take at look at this econlife for the perfect tariff graphic.

My sources and more: In addition to Visual Capitalist, Business Insider had the state-by-state facts. Then, for more detail, I checked Montana Economy at a Glance. and the Progressive Policy Institute. And finally, the avocado info was at ESPN and the Food Institute.