The Mystery of the Falling Turkey Prices

Turkey prices are down by 6.1%.

But because of bird flu (avian influenza), they should have gone up. Affecting 494 herds in 16 states during the past three years, bird flu diminished flock size by 100 million. This month alone, the disease infected a whopping 300,000 birds. As a result, on a supply and demand graph, the supply curve should have shifted to the left, increased price, and decreased quantity:

However, there is more to the story.

Turkey Prices

Yes, during the past 20 years, the bird count has dipped:

Still, constraining the leftward shift in our supply curve, farmers paid less for their feed grain. And then, leaping to the demand side of turkey markets, we see less demand further moderating the price of a turkey. If you are the average turkey eater, you decreased your annual turkey intake from 14.8 to 13.9 pounds because of other meats.

Happily, for us as economists, a supply and demand graph says it all. With the decrease in demand and supply, equilibrium price goes down:

Our Bottom Line: Thanksgiving Dinner

Feeding 10, this week’s Thanksgiving Dinner will cost $58.08, down 5% from last year:

Explaining the above prices, the Wall Street Journal told us what went up and down.

On the up list, we have:

• fresh cranberries +11.8%
• stuffing mix +8.2%
• dinner rolls +8.4%

At the same time, we will spend less on:

• frozen peas -8.1%
• pie crusts-2.9%
• pumpkin pie mix -6.5%
• sweet potatoes -26.2%
• the turkey -6.1%

Where are we? Caused by the 2022 Covid pop, we remain uncomfortable with higher food prices:

My sources and more: Always handy, the Farm Bureau had its annual list of Thanksgiving meal prices and also the bird flu saga. Next, it was perfect to have found more of the facts in a WSJ article. And finally, especially because this year Thanksgiving is unusally close to the winter holidays, do take a look at this past econlife post.