Just Ask Jenna Looks At Scary Situations

by Jenna C, ’26

Dear Jenna,

A few nights before leaving for vacation, I watched Soul Surfer with my family. Ever since I saw Bethany Hamilton lose her arm in a shark attack, I cannot stop thinking about it. I know the movie is based on a true story, which somehow makes it feel even scarier. Now every time I think about going into the ocean, I immediately picture the worst possible scenario happening to me. I barely even want to go in past my knees because I keep imagining something pulling me underwater. Is there any way I can control my fear?

From,
Scared of the Surf

Dear Scared of the Surf,

What you are describing connects to a behavioral economics idea called probability neglect. Probability neglect happens when people focus so much on how emotionally intense or frightening an outcome would be that they stop paying attention to how unlikely it actually is.

This is exactly what happened after you watched Soul Surfer. The movie gave you a vivid and emotional image of a shark attack, which made the possibility feel much larger in your mind than it actually is. According to the Florida Museum’s International Stark Attack File, the odds of being attacked by a shark are about 1 in 11.5 million, which is incredibly rare. But our brains do not naturally react to statistics as strongly as they react to stories and images. For comparison, the National Safety Council estimates that the lifetime odds of dying in a car accident are closer to about 1 in 93. Even though driving is far riskier, most people get into a car every day without thinking twice because it feels familiar and routine.

What makes probability neglect so interesting is that people do this all the time without realizing it. We tend to overreact to dramatic but unlikely events and underreact to everyday risks because the dramatic events stick in our minds more easily. Shark attacks, plane crashes, and other rare events are memorable. They create fear because we can picture them happening, even if the numbers say otherwise.

Economists and psychologists study this because probability neglect affects real decision-making all the time. It can influence what people buy, how they invest, what they avoid, and even what policies they support. The challenge is learning how to balance emotion with actual probability instead of letting fear completely distort perception.

Knowing that your fear is real, but the probability is not, you can stop worrying and enjoy the surf.

Best of luck!
Jenna 

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