What We Also Need To Know About Immigration

Moving from “why” and “where” in yesterday’s post, today, demography and climate change complete the immigration puzzle.

Understanding Immigration

Demography

For migrants to minimize the cost and maximize the benefit that they bring to a new home, the “match” needs to work.

Italy

Italy is the poster country for an aging population. With a replacement rate of 1.3–less than the 2.1 that preserves a population–Italy’s population will probably shrink from 59 million in 2022 to 32 million by 2100.

By 2050, Italy will have an age bulge:

Ranging from Italy to South Korea, high income countries need to support their aging populations with younger workers. Mathematically illustrated with dependency ratios (working age population divided by aged), the high income OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) saw their ratio plunge from 7.1 in 1950 to 2.9 in 2022. Continuing the decline, the projection for 2050 is below 2.0.

But perhaps this graph says it all.  In high income countries, we have a growing elderly population while the number of working age people will decline:

You can see where we are heading. Aging populations need an injection of youth. Immigration could be the solution. However, as the World Bank report suggests, for the match to work, migrants need the appropriate skills.

Climate Change

Severe weather events that include drought, heat waves, and storms can impact mobility decisions within countries and beyond:

The World Bank Group estimates that more than 300 million people have made the decision to move during the past 15 years. Logically, they suggest that the characteristics of the group that moves shapes the skills they bring to their destination. As a result, a rural population might not be a match for what high income countries need. For example, established to facilitate migration, South Korea had an Employment Permit System. However, many of the migrants were rejected because of the inappropriate skill match.

Taking a close look at vulnerabilities faced by sub-Saharan Africans, the report summarizes the risks that might increase cross border movements. They question whether climate mitigation will be sufficient. Similarly, they ask if climate change adaptation can occur without sufficient financial support. Then finally, returning to migration, they suggest that population mobility is a part of the response to climate change. But it can only work if the destination countries receive a “match.”

Our Bottom Line: Spillover

Far beyond the migrant population, the ripple of impact could take us to solving the problems of aging populations and climate change. But first, to welcome migrants, nations need a “match.”

My sources and more: Complementing yesterday’s post, today we primarily relied on “Migrants, Refugees, and Societies” from the World Bank Group for facts and all graphics.