What We Can Learn From a Cardboard Box

Our story begins when the Philadelphia Athletics were the World Series champs in 1929. Just two weeks after they won the last game on October 14, the market crashed. Next, 51 years later, as a debilitating stagflation began in 1980, the Philadelphia Phillies won their first World Series. Then, as we all know, the next big financial upset came in 2008. And yes, the Phillies won for a second time.

Commenting on tne 2022 World Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Houston Astros, a financial guru tweeted, “The Astros Must Save the American economy.”

They did.

On November 5, 2022, the Astros won Game 6 and became that year’s World Series champs. The score was 4-1.

Since then, the GDP went straight up:

Somewhat like the Phillies (if we believe the correlation between their loss and the GDP), cardboard packages can indicate where the economy is heading.

Cardboard Packages

A Maine paper manufacturer was once told that he really was in the packaging business. When paper makes corrugated-cardboard packages, the ups and downs of the business reflect where retailers expect it to go. Expecting economic growth, Amazon not only boosts its box orders, but so too will everyone ranging from mushroom farmers to factory parts sellers. As a result, firms like International Paper can enjoy higher prices.

We know that we ordered more packages during Covid. Predictably, and according to PackagingDive, “there was a spike in box demand.” During early 2022, it was hard to keep up with demand when retailers and restaurants needed more mailers and extra food delivery containers. As a result, producer box prices were up:

Our Bottom Line: Leading Indicators

The prices of corrugated-cardboard packaging can be a leading indicator of economic activity. When demand increases shift equilibrium price upward, we can look forward to the prosperity reflected by consumer and producer spending. Now though, we have the opposite trajectory.

More universally followed than cardboard packages, the US leading indicator metric (LEI) predicts the ups and downs of business activity during the next several months. In the May 19, 2025 LEI report, most of its 10 components were “deteriorating:”

These are the 10 LEI components:

As our own leading indicator, this April PackagingDive headline said, “Tariff turmoil: Box demand dips, recession fears rise.”

My sources and more: Thanks to WSJ for inspiring today’s post. Meanwhile, there was more from WSJ and Yahoo Finance on cardboard as a leading indicator. Next, PackagingDive, here and here, gave us the box data and the Conference Board updated its Leading Indicators.

Please note that parts of today’s cardboard discussion were in a previous econlife post.