Why a Dam Is About More Than Water

During September 2023, we looked at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). As Ethiopia’s new dam, it was already providing electrification. Also though, we can ask whose water they are using.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Estimating gargantuan quantities of water, an Egyptian geologist expected 64 billion cubic meters when the fifth filling ended in several weeks. Like the past four fillings, it began during the July rainy season. The dam’s planned capacity was 74 billion cubic meters of water that could generate as much as six thousand megawatts of much-needed power. The problem? Egypt says that Ethiopia is taking more than its water share.

In addition, beyond water security, the Carnegie Endowment sees the dam as an identity issue. Essential for its civilization, the Nile is Egyptian history and central to how it sees itself. By contrast, the dam is Ethiopia’s future. As a development project, it represents their battle against poverty.

Who Owns the Nile?

Located downriver, Egypt and Sudan say they have historic rights to the river. At the same time, the upriver countries also claim possession of the waters that originate within their borders.

You can see how location affects the debate. (I added the red arrow to the BBC map.):

Looking back, we can quote multiple Nile Water Agreements. In the 1959 Accord, Egypt was allocated 55.5 billion cubic meters of water each year while Sudan got 18.5 billion cubic meters. Although the Aswan High Dam was completed in 1971, the 1959 Treaty initiated it. Since then, conflicts ebbed and flowed. In the past, Ethiopia believed that Egypt used the Nile while Ethiopia, the source of 85 percent of the water, got little benefit. Now though, GERD is supposed to double the country’s electrical capacity. The goal is to “light up” the 60 million or so people that compose approximately half of their population.

Our Bottom Line: Dam Tradeoffs

As an upriver country, Ethiopia has an advantage that is typical for dam building countries. When the U.S. built the Hoover Dam, it cost Mexico water. Somewhat similarly, Syria and Iraq were affected by Turkey’s Ataturk Dam. And Pakistan and India feel an impact from China’s control of waters that flow to them.

Furthermore, large dams affect the environment. The Aswan High dam, reducing agricultural productivity and fish stocks, affected ecosystems. Scientists also hypothesize that that the weight of the water in Lake Nasser could have had a seismic impact.

And yet, if GERD lives up to expectations, it will diminish Ethiopian poverty. Through an Egyptian lens, the tradeoff is their water security.

My sources and more: Evolving during more than a decade, the Ethiopia dam dispute was updated by Egypt Today. and the Carnegie Endowment. Meanwhile, this OSU 2013 article, though dated, gave a thorough overview of the facts. And finally, today’s post reminded me of another shared river.

Please note that our featured image of GERD is from Minasse Wondimu Hailu/AA/picture alliance. Also, several of today’s sentences were in past econlife posts.