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Last updated 6/28/24
Every once in a while, (and sometimes each day) I listen to a great podcast, enjoy an article, or see a good video that I want to share with you.
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I like to think of them as my e-links.
Friday’s e-links 6/28/24
No, Alan Lichtman does not have a crystal ball. However, this American University Professor of History has successfully predicted presidential elections. Currently with a nine out of ten record, he uses 13 criteria. (He says he really was not wrong for the Bush/Gore election since it went to the Supreme Court.) An earthquake specialist helped him form the list.
I’ve copied his criteria from the American University website that describes his approach. Referring to the 13 variables, we are told that, “if 8 or more of the 13 keys are true for the incumbent party, its candidate will win the election—but if fewer than 8 are true, the challenger will win:”
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
As economists we can note that it’s not “the economy stupid.” Only #’s 5 and 6 focus on recession and economic growth.
