Why India Needs Its Census

Telling us a rather precise number, the United Nations said India’s population, at 1,425, 775, 850, would have exceeded China’s on April 14.

More accurately, we can say that India and China are the world’s most populous nations. Below, in this wonderful map from Our World in Data, size indicates population,

But, for India’s population, we are really not sure of the numbers.

India’s Population

We think that India just became the world’s most populous nation. However, due in 2021, India’s count of its people was postponed because of Covid and then technical glitches.

We know that India needs its numbers. To plan policy accurately, India needs census data for employment and literacy. It should know how many people have a toilet and electricity. It needs to know about poverty and demography and healthcare. As a whole, it should know its population.

The counters say the delays stem from the need for accuracy. Their goal is to synchronize a mobile phone app with national identity databases. Meanwhile though, The Economist tells us that there still is no rescheduling date. As a result, decade old estimates “are far from reality.”

Estimates

Still, India can do some estumating through Aadhaar and its SRS survey. Through India’s Unique Identification program (UID) people get the 12-digit Aadhaar numbers that let them prove their identity. Somewhat similarly, a representative group of births and deaths are recorded with a sample registration system. In addition, India’s statisticians have reported that households in the North average six to seven children while the South, at two, is much less. They also estimate that there are 4.5 million fewer jobs than before the pandemic.

Our Bottom Line: Shift From China

As companies like Apple diversify beyond China, they will need data from India.

During the past several months, Apple reported that its Taiwan based manufacturing partners would create Indian assembly plants. With products that range from iPhones and Apple watches to Mac computers, India’s labor force could experience a boost. Correspondingly, for stores with as many as 1,000 employees, Apple began hiring retail employees that ranged from “geniuses” to senior managers and business experts in Mumbai and perhaps elsewhere.

Since Apple’s goal in India is reputedly from “silicon to storefront,” they surely will need demographic data to plan their initiative. Indeed, as the shift from China unfolds from Apple and other companies, India’s massive population will make and buy more of the world’s goods and services. To support its economic growth, it needs to know its numbers.

My sources and more: Our World in Data’s most mind boggling map took me to India. From there, Reuters had some insight about India as well as Project Syndicate and The Economist. Then, completing the picture, FT had the complementary Apple facts and WSJ focused on the the shift from China.