Can Stock Markets Predict Elections?

No one seems to be talking about what really might have led to the Obama win. The stock market. The basic reasoning is that people connect their “social mood” to the incumbent and social mood directly relates to how the…

Election Economics: Looking at the Millennials, Xers, Boomers, and Silents

Before tomorrow’s election, let’s take a look at the voting age gap. Absent since 1972, the young and the old again are voting differently.   The Silent Generation: The oldest slice of the population, the Silent Generation was born between 1928…

Election Economics: Comparing Economic Recoveries

Illustrated by this graph from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, sometimes one orange line can create a huge debate. The thick orange line representing the US recovery from the December 2007-June 2009 recession reflects a tepid ascent next to curves that represent…

Election Economics: The Economics of Foreign Policy

Although tonight’s presidential debate is about foreign policy, perhaps the real focus is the economy. More than 200 years ago, Alexander Hamilton created the connection between economic policy and foreign policy. By funding the Revolutionary War debt, he established public credit and US borrowing…

Election Economics: What To Know For The First Presidential Debate

Presidential debate moderator Jim Lehrer said there would be six 15-minute segments in the first presidential debate on October 3rd. Devoting the entire first half to “the economy,” he will also cover healthcare, the role of government, and “governing.” Like the…

Election Economics: Obama’s Keynesian Message

Comparing Obama/Biden and Romney/Ryan economics, people name John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich von Hayek. Having looked at Hayek several weeks ago, let’s turn to Keynes now. During 1934, with unemployment high and production low, British economist John Maynard Keynes was…

Election Economics: More of the Jobs Story

Here are some jobs facts that might be helpful when you listen to the candidates. During 1933, the unemployment rate was a cataclysmic 24.9%. Having entered office that year, FDR was re-elected in 1936 with unemployment still soaring but better…

Election Economics: Aging Challenges

If you lined up everyone in the United States by age, the middle person would be close to 37.1 years old. In 1850, the median age was 19, for 2000 close to 35 and by 2050, we expect that middle…

Election Economics: Meeting Paul Ryan’s Economic Muse

People tend to ask, “Who??” when Friedrich von Hayek is named as Paul Ryan’s economic muse. Our purpose right now is to get to know some Hayek basics to see what Ryan brings to the Romney/Ryan candidacy. Austrian born, a…

Remembering Milton Friedman

Split down the middle, opinion about the US economy puts private initiative or government first. Those who place individual enterprise first believe most private income belongs to those who generate it. By contrast, government’s advocates see a growing share of private income as…