The Reason That Recession Dates Matter

Asked to define a recession, you can give the mechanical answer. It is 2 or more adjacent quarters of a real GDP decline. So, if Q1 GDP grows by 3%, Q2 by 2% and then Q3 by 1%, is that a recession? (I…

It's Official

We now know when the recession officially ended. But I still wonder whether we are moving along a “V”, a “U”, a “W” or an “L”. According to the National…

Is It Over?

Imagine a “u” attached to a slightly (or considerably) higher upside down “u” and you are looking at 2 business cycles. A business cycle includes a peak, a contraction, a troug…

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