The Reason That Recession Dates Matter

Asked to define a recession, you can give the mechanical answer. It is 2 or more adjacent quarters of a real GDP decline. So, if Q1 GDP grows by 3%, Q2 by 2% and then Q3 by 1%, is that a recession? (I…

More On Unemployment

These are great graphs! In just a minute or 2, through a series from The Washington Post, you can understand our employment problems. Our starting point is potential output during the past decade. We …

It's Official

We now know when the recession officially ended. But I still wonder whether we are moving along a “V”, a “U”, a “W” or an “L”. According to the National…

Big and Little Worries

1.  Sovereign debt: Contemplating big worries, I could place sovereign debt at the top of the the list. Should we currently be concerned about Greece, Spain and other EU nations with excessive ob…

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